News, sports, politics, blogs and forums Eden Prairie, Minnesota • (952) 942-7885

Eden Prairie, Minnesota

Keep up with the News! Sign up for email newsletters and RSS feeds.
Click to Login
No account? Sign up!

Advertising

"For Whom the Poll Tells"


» Read similar stories filed under:

"Maybe Republicans are right. Maybe liberals aren't constitutionally cut out to be commander-in-chief. Not constitution as in 1787, but constitution as in backbone and gut-check. Panic, it seems, is their natural state. And so it is that every time John McCain lands some good polling numbers they freak out and start talking about leaving for Canada.

There are three reasons why they should calm down.

First, it was always going to be close and those who never understood that are just hanging around with people who agree with themselves too often. Just because 79% think the country is going in the wrong direction doesn't mean they all want it to go in the same direction. And the fact that Bush's approval ratings are at 34% means there is a solid third of the country who will pretty much believe whatever they want to believe.

Obama is a late finisher. Six weeks before the Iowa caucuses he trailed (pdf) Clinton by 6% in Iowa, 19% in New Hampshire and 14% in South Carolina. We all know how that turned out. His campaign relies on field offices and grassroots contact, which takes longer and is more of a slow burn.

But finally, and most importantly, the polls that really matter are not the national but the state polls. The US presidential election is not really a national election but 50 separate local ones. And on that front, even after the conventions Obama is in a commanding position. Obama needs 18 electoral college votes – more than John Kerry – to win. According to pollster.com there is not a single state that Kerry won where McCain is ahead. Conversely, there are two that Bush won – Iowa and New Mexico – where Obama maintains a commanding lead. That's 12 electoral votes. Then there are two – Michigan and New Hampshire – that Kerry won where Obama holds slight leads but which are toss-ups. That's 21 electoral votes. Then there are eight that Bush won – Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina – which are toss-ups. Obama narrowly leads in four, McCain narrowly leads in three. One, Virginia, is a dead heat. That's 95 electoral votes.

In other words, Obama is fighting this election entirely on McCain's territory. McCain is struggling to defend what he has. If they split those toss-ups even 80-20 in McCains' favour he still loses the election.

Advertisement. Article continues below.

That doesn't mean Obama's going to walk it. First of all, this year more than most polls are likely to be uniquely unreliable. White people have routinely lied to pollsters about their propensity to vote for a black candidate in a bid to hide their racism. Meanwhile, Obama's base is heavily built on the young and the black who historically have been less likely to turn up than others. One may cancel the other out. The truth is, nobody really knows. (There is some reason to believe the Bradley effect – also known as the Wilder effect (pdf) – no longer holds. I'll believe it when I see it).

In any case, there's a while to go before election day and it is perfectly possible that Obama will lose each roll of the dice. But it's unlikely. What it does mean is that the people who should really be panicking – and who clearly really are panicking because otherwise they wouldn't have picked Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential nominee – are the Republicans. I know which position I would rather be in. Democrats, meanwhile, should have a bit more faith that they have picked the right candidate. Electoral-vote.com, which uses a different method for calculating the slew of polls each day, projects an Obama victory of 281 to McCain's 230 with 27 votes tied. This time back in 2004 they projected Bush on 254 and Kerry on 243 with 41 votes tied. The good news is they got the numbers, if not the individual states, pretty much right back then. The bad news is all the tied votes went to Bush."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/09/uselections2008.usa



Watching and comprehending...

Back to page top

Watching and comprehending the management style of a future executive team gives clarity about their ability to represent the nation they pretend to want to serve.

Top McCain-Palin official Carly Fiorina is facing criticism from some within the campaign for a day of what they call 'very Biden-like' comments," CNN reports, "after the former Hewlett-Packard CEO told two separate interviewers that neither member of the Republican ticket would be capable of running a company."

Indeed, the daggers seemed out for Fiorina among the McCain aides that spoke to CNN.

A top McCain official contacted by CNN said, on condition on anonymity, "No big deal, but not how you get on the surrogate all-star team. Very Biden-like."

"This campaign source said Fiorina would be discouraged from additional media interviews.

Another top campaign adviser was far less diplomatic.

"Carly will now disappear," this source said. "Senator McCain was furious." Asked to define "disappear," this source said, adding that she would be off TV for a while - but remain at the Republican National Committee and keep her role as head of the party's joint fundraising committee with the McCain campaign.

Fiorina was booked for several TV interviews over the next few days, including one on CNN. Those interviews have been canceled.

This reveals the nature of the McCain-Palin campaign to minutely manage their message to avoid insight about their incompetence.


Submitted by Kelobo on September 17, 2008 - 6:04am.

Kelobo, as usual, you only...

Back to page top

Kelobo, as usual, you only read what you want to read. Here is the full article for your viewing enjoyment.

Fiorina: Obama Camp ‘Deceitful’ in Clipping My Quote

Barack Obama’s campaign was “deceitful” when it clipped part of an interview in which Republican Victory 2008 Chairwoman Carly Fiorina said John McCain was not qualified to be the head of a corporation, Fiorina said Tuesday.

Earlier in the day, Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, appeared on MSNBC, where she said none of the candidates is qualified to run a major corporation, but that should not prevent them from running the country.

“I don’t think John McCain could run a major corporation. I don’t think Barack Obama could run a major corporation. I don’t think Joe Biden could run a major corporation. But on the other hand a major corporation is not the same as being the president or vice president of the United States,” Fiorina said.

“It is a fallacy to suggest that the country is like a company. So of course to run a business you have to have a lifetime of experience in business, but that’s not what Sarah Palin, John McCain, Joe Biden or Barack Obama are doing,” she said.

But the Obama campaign, in an e-mail linking to a YouTube video of Fiorina’s statement that was clipped after the first sentence, berated McCain for not winning the trust of even his own supporters.

“When John McCain’s top economic adviser doesn’t think that he’s qualified to run a corporation — how on Earth can he run the largest economy in the world in the midst of a financial crisis?” Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement accompanying the shortened clip.

“Apparently even the people who run his campaign agree that the economy is an issue that John McCain doesn’t understand as well as he should. Senator Obama has been ahead of the curve trying to prevent this crisis and he’s called for new rules of the road to make sure that it doesn’t happen again.”

Fiorina lashed back at the suggestion she doesn’t trust McCain and said Obama is the least qualified of any of the candidates to run the country.

“I think this is a pattern of the Obama campaign. What they did was deceitful. They literally cut words off,” Fiorina told FOX News.

“Secondly, they are sort of flooding the zone with nonsense. Look, different experiences prepare you for different jobs. Sarah Palin and John McCain are uniquely experienced to be the president and vice president of the United States. Barack Obama is the least qualified candidate running today in terms of his executive experience, in terms of his time in public office. So I think the Obama campaign would do very well to stop hurling the experience argument, because their candidate for president has less than any one else for office right now on these two tickets,” she said.


Submitted by Gino G on September 17, 2008 - 7:28am.

McCain doesn’t know what...

Back to page top

McCain doesn’t know what his own committee does.

With Wall Street’s financial institutions in turmoil, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) argued in a series of interviews today that his experience on the Senate Commerce Committee meant he knew “how to fix this economy.” “I understand the economy. I was chairman of the Commerce Committee that oversights every part of our economy,” McCain told CNBC’s Squawk Box.

But, as the Washington Post points out, the Commerce Committee doesn’t oversee “every part of our economy,” let alone “the very areas now in crisis“:

In fact, it is the Senate Banking Committee that has oversight of “banks, banking and financial institutions; control of prices of commodities, rents and services; federal monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve System; financial aid to commerce and industry and money and credit, including currency and coinage.”

According to its Web site, the Commerce Committee oversees 13 areas, beginning with the Coast Guard, and continuing through “regulation of consumer products and services … except for credit, financial services, and housing” — the very areas now in crisis.

It’s not that surprising that McCain is confused about the Commerce Committee’s economic responsibilities, considering that he freely admits, “The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should.”


Submitted by Kelobo on September 17, 2008 - 6:46am.

Clinton Cancels Rally...

Back to page top

Clinton Cancels Rally Appearance After Learning Palin Invited
by Associated Press
Wednesday, September 17, 2008

What is Hillary afraid of? For that matter, why are the dems running around like scared children?

WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has canceled an appearance at a New York rally next week after organizers blindsided her by inviting Republican vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, aides to the senator said Tuesday.

Several American Jewish groups plan a major rally outside the United Nations on Sept. 22 to protest against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Organizers said Tuesday that both Clinton, who nearly won the Democratic nomination for president, and Palin, Republican candidate John McCain’s running mate, are expected to attend.

That would have set up a closely scrutinized and potentially explosive pairing in the midst of a presidential campaign, one in which the New York senator is campaigning for Democratic nominee Barack Obama while Palin actively courts disappointed Clinton supporters.

Clinton aides were furious. They first learned of the plan to have both Clinton and Palin appear when informed by reporters.

“Her attendance was news to us, and this was never billed to us as a partisan political event,” said Clinton spokesman Philippe Reines. “Sen. Clinton will therefore not be attending.”

A McCain-Palin campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity because Palin’s schedule for Monday has not been announced, said only that Palin tentatively planned to attend the rally.

Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, did not immediately return messages Tuesday seeking comment, nor did other organizers of the rally. Other event sponsors are the National Coalition to Stop Iran Now, United Jewish Communities and the Jewish Community Relations Council of New York.

Both McCain and Obama have made strong appeals to Jewish voters, particularly in critical states like Florida. Obama has emphasized to Jewish audiences his commitment to Israel’s security, and has worked to dispel doubts created by false rumors that he is Muslim.


Submitted by Gino G on September 17, 2008 - 7:00am.

Obama Picks Up $9 Million at...

Back to page top

Obama Picks Up $9 Million at Glitzy Hollywood Fundraiser
by Associated Press
Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Is this the guy you want to elect? Out of touch at $28,500 for dinner. Here's a noble gesture....Donate it to charity!!!

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. — Barack Obama partied with Hollywood celebrities Tuesday night and with the help of Oscar-winning singer and actress Barbra Streisand raised an eye-popping $9 million for his presidential campaign and the Democratic Party.

The night was split into two glitzy events, a reception and dinner costing $28,500 each at the Greystone Mansion, followed by entertainment by Streisand at the nearby Regent Beverly Wilshire Hotel. About 250-300 people were expected at the dinner and about 800 at the entertainment, which cost $2,500 a ticket.

Dinner guests seen by reporters, or noted by waiters, included Will Ferrell, Jodie Foster, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Lee Curtis and DreamWorks founders Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenbach.

Obama spent more than an hour before dinner getting his picture taken with guests. He said later that people had encouraged him to be tougher and had questioned why he was so calm in a close race against Republican John McCain.

“I’m skinny but I’m tough,” he said. “I’m from Chicago and we don’t play. Just keep steady.”

“If we can cut through the nonsense and the lipstick and the pigs and the silliness, then I’m absolutely convinced that we are going to win,” Obama said, referring to some of the offbeat charges raised against him.

“The reason I’m calm … is I’ve got confidence in the American people,” he said. “I really think they want to see us do better.” Standing in the courtyard of the palatial estate, he said his campaign was dedicated to people who need jobs and health care and worry about their pensions and sending children to college.

“It’s about those who will never see the inside of a building like this,” Obama said.

He said the economic turmoil in recent days had been sobering for America. “It’s reminded people that this is not a game. This is not a reality show, no offense to any of you,” Obama said to laughter. “This is not a sitcom.”

It was a day of contrasts for Obama. Earlier in the day, the Democratic presidential candidate spoke about the public’s deepening economic anxieties and portrayed Republican challenger John McCain as out of touch with the needs of hardworking people.

Then he flew to California for a night of hobnobbing with Hollywood notables.

McCain groused about Obama mixing it up with celebrities. He told a rally in Vienna, Ohio on Tuesday that Obama “talks about siding with the people, siding with the people just before he flies off to Hollywood for a fundraiser with Barbra Streisand and his celebrity friends. Let me tell you my friends, there’s no place I’d rather be than here with the working men and women of Ohio.”

A night earlier, McCain was with deep-pocketed donors in Florida and raised $5 million, a fact noted by Obama’s campaign.

“I don’t know who showed up down in Florida where he raised $5 million but my guess is that it wasn’t a lot of nurses, firefighters and police officers,” Obama’s senior strategist, David Axelrod, told reporters. “The whole corporate lobbying community is rallying to his side. We’re going to have to struggle to keep pace. You can’t challenge that group and not expect them to have a lot of money.”

While the final total was not determined, Obama’s campaign did not dispute estimates that the twin events would bring in $9 million for Obama and the Democratic Party. That would be his second-biggest, fundraising day. Obama received $10 million from online donors the day after McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, delivered her speech at the Republican convention.

On another big fundraising night in California, Obama raised $7 million in August in San Francisco.

Obama is financing his presidential race with private contributions after abandoning a pledge to take public financing capped at $84 million. His campaign announced Sunday it had collected $66 million in August, a fundraising record for any presidential candidate in a monthlong period.

By comparison, McCain raised $47 million in August, a personal best for his campaign as well. After claiming the GOP nomination, McCain accepted the $84 million in taxpayer funds allotted by the public financing system for the race.


Submitted by Gino G on September 17, 2008 - 7:11am.

Obama: Surge Succeeded...

Back to page top

Obama: Surge Succeeded Beyond ‘Wildest Dreams’

Which Obama is this?

he troop surge in Iraq has been more successful than anyone could have imagined, Barack Obama conceded Thursday in his first-ever interview on FOX News’ “The O’Reilly Factor.”

As recently as July, the Democratic presidential candidate declined to rate the surge a success, but said it had helped reduce violence in the country. On Thursday, Obama acknowledged the 2007 increase in U.S. troops has benefited the Iraqi people.

“I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated,” Obama said while refusing to retract his initial opposition to the surge. “I’ve already said it’s succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.”

However, he added, the country has not had enough “political reconciliation” and Iraqis still have not taken responsibility for their country.

Click here to view the first segment of the interview with Obama.

“We have gone through five years of mismanagement of this war that I thought was disastrous, and the president wanted to double down and continue an open-ended policy (that did not put pressure on the Iraqi government),” he said.

Speaking on other national security matters, Obama said he would not take military action off the table in dealing with Iran, but diplomacy and sanctions can’t be overlooked.

The Islamic republic is a “major threat” and it would be “unacceptable” for the rogue nation to develop a nuclear weapon, he said.

“It is unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, it would be a game changer,” Obama said. “It’s sufficient to say I would not take military action off the table and that I will never hesitate to use our military force in order to protect the homeland and the United States’ interests.”

But Obama warned against the current U.S. administration lumping radical Islamic groups together.

“They have fueled a whole host of terrorist organizations,” Obama said of Iran, but “we have to have the ability to distinguish between groups. … They may not all be part and parcel of the same ideology.”

Obama sat down with O’Reilly in York, Pa., after holding a discussion on the economy with voters nearby. The Illinois senator has been campaigning in battleground states since accepting the Democratic presidential nomination last Thursday at his party’s convention in Denver.

John McCain was formally chosen as the Republican presidential nominee Wednesday in St. Paul.

Obama also told FOX News Thursday he “absolutely” believes the United States is fighting a War on Terror, with the enemy being, “Al Qaeda, the Taliban, a whole host of networks that are bent on attacking America, who have a distorted ideology, who have perverted the faith of Islam.”

He repeated his campaign’s foreign policy position that Afghanistan must become the “central front” in the War on Terror.


Submitted by Gino G on September 17, 2008 - 7:13am.

Top Clinton fundraiser and...

Back to page top

Top Clinton fundraiser and member of Democratic platform committee backing McCain over Obama

Associated Press

Last update: September 17, 2008 - 7:08 AM

This has go to hurt;

WASHINGTON - John McCain's campaign says the Republican is picking up the support of a top Hillary Clinton fundraiser and member of the Democratic National Committee's Platform Committee.

Lynn Forester de Rothschild has said she thinks Democratic nominee Barack Obama is arrogant and has a problem connecting with average Americans.

Rothschild is a member of the DNC's Democrats Abroad chapter and splits her time living in London and New York. She was one of Clinton's top fundraisers, bringing in more than $100,000 for her presidential campaign. She built a multimillion-dollar telecommunications company before marrying international banker Sir Evelyn de Rothschild.

Rothschild plans to announce her support for McCain on Wednesday in Washington.

Featured comment
Close comment
Baracks campaign is falling apart...

He spends much of his time in Hollywood at 28500 per plate dinners with celebrities while John McCain eats at small diners in Ohio. He … read more cannot connect with the average people because he now needs a teleprompter to get through a campaign rally. I would vote for him if he were on American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.
Close comment
Add your own comment
Register or log in to comment


Submitted by Gino G on September 17, 2008 - 7:34am.

Advertising

Recent comments

Advertising

Who's online

There are currently 0 users and 144 guests online.

Who's new

  • Jagu
  • jim slater
  • patsf
  • BernadetteAli
  • Sam_Daub

Hot Jobs

Teller, State Bank of Belle Plaine
Food Service, The Colony at Eden Prairie

Advertising